Scenario Analysis of Possible Futures for Amol Municipality Revenues
Keywords:
Municipality, sustainable revenue, scenario analysis, financial planning, AmolAbstract
This study aims to identify and analyze potential scenarios for the future of Amol municipality revenues, with emphasis on financial sustainability and the role of institutional, economic, and social factors. A mixed-methods approach was applied. In the qualitative phase, semi-structured interviews with urban governance experts and analysis of municipal financial and development documents were conducted. In the quantitative phase, a Likert-scale questionnaire was distributed among 300 respondents including citizens, municipal managers, contractors, and developers. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics, MICMAC software for cross-impact analysis, and Scenario Wizard software for scenario construction. Trend analysis of 12 years of financial data was applied to forecast revenue changes through 2028. Results revealed that while general and specific taxes increased nominally, their relative share declined, whereas service charges and asset revenues gained significance. Five key drivers were identified: government support, infrastructure development, private sector investment, citizen tax compliance, and inflation. Based on these drivers, seven scenarios were generated ranging from optimistic (sustainable growth) to pessimistic and crisis situations (gradual collapse). Crisis scenarios highlighted negative synergies between weak financial policies, infrastructure deterioration, and low citizen participation. The study concludes that the financial future of Amol municipality depends strongly on governance quality, citizen trust, and infrastructure investment. Enhancing financial transparency, diversifying revenue sources, and securing consistent government support are vital to ensuring fiscal sustainability and preventing crisis scenarios.
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