A Grounded Theory Analysis of “Governance Inertia” in Explaining the Underdevelopment of Golestan Province

Abstract

The objective of this study was to explain the institutional, structural, and managerial processes underlying the persistence of underdevelopment in Golestan Province and to develop a grounded theory of “governance inertia.” This qualitative study employed a systematic grounded theory approach. Participants included 30 university professors, senior executive managers and specialists, and private-sector economic actors and investors in Golestan Province, selected through purposive, snowball, and theoretical sampling until theoretical saturation was achieved. Data were collected through in-depth semi-structured interviews lasting 60–90 minutes. After verbatim transcription, the data were analyzed through open, axial, and selective coding. Credibility was enhanced through member checking, data triangulation, and expert review, while inter-coder agreement reached 80%. Analysis of the 30 interviews yielded 417 initial codes. Among the causal conditions, weak fundamental infrastructure accounted for 87 codes and dominance of traditional agriculture for 65 codes. High climatic and natural diversity emerged as a major contextual condition with 42 codes. Among intervening conditions, centralized national policies accounted for 58 codes and macroeconomic instability for 49 codes. Selective coding identified “governance inertia” as the core category with the greatest explanatory power, reflecting institutional lock-in, path dependence, reproduction of inefficient patterns, weak institutional learning, and structural resistance to change. Underdevelopment in Golestan Province does not primarily result from a lack of potential resources; rather, it is produced by a self-reinforcing interaction among infrastructural weaknesses, traditional economic structures, centralization, macroeconomic instability, and limited institutional adaptability. Breaking governance inertia requires reforming decision-making structures, increasing regional authority, strengthening institutional coordination, developing value chains, and integrating the province’s economic and environmental capacities.