The Impact of Socioeconomic Factors on Educational Migration to Germany, Italy, and Turkey

Abstract

This study aimed to examine the effects of economic, educational, and labor-market factors on Iranian students’ intention to migrate for education to Germany, Italy, and Turkey and to determine their predictive power relative to demographic characteristics. This applied study employed a descriptive-analytical, ex post facto design. The statistical population comprised undergraduate and master’s students enrolled at public and Islamic Azad universities in Tehran in 2025. Of 600 distributed questionnaires, 440 complete responses were included in the analysis. Data were collected using a researcher-developed questionnaire covering household income, perceived economic inequality, educational quality, employment and unemployment conditions, demographic characteristics, and educational migration intention. Content validity was assessed by experts, and reliability was evaluated using Cronbach’s alpha. Binary logistic regression was used to estimate the effects of the predictors on migration intention. Model adequacy and predictive performance were evaluated using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test, pseudo-R² indices, classification accuracy, and the receiver operating characteristic curve. Logistic regression indicated that household income (B=-0.08, OR=0.92, p=0.001), economic inequality (B=0.75, OR=2.12, p<0.001), educational quality (B=-0.82, OR=0.44, p<0.001), and unemployment (B=0.65, OR=1.91, p<0.001) significantly predicted educational migration intention, whereas age and educational level were not significant. Educational quality was the strongest predictor, with the highest Wald statistic (34.25). The Nagelkerke R² was 0.37, indicating that the model accounted for 37% of variation in migration intention. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test supported adequate model fit (χ²=6.55, df=8, p=0.586). Overall classification accuracy reached 80.0%, and the area under the ROC curve was 0.80, demonstrating satisfactory discriminatory performance. Iranian students’ intention to migrate for education is shaped primarily by structural economic, educational, and labor-market conditions rather than demographic characteristics; therefore, improving higher-education quality, reducing economic inequality, and strengthening employment prospects may mitigate the push factors underlying educational migration.