From Stadium Infrastructure to the Spectator’s Mind: Analyzing the Causal Chain of Reattendance Intention in Iraqi Football Stadiums Using an Integrated ISM–SEM Approach

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the causal chain of factors affecting spectators’ reattendance intention in Iraqi football stadiums and to explain the hierarchical, direct, and indirect relationships among these factors using an integrated Interpretive Structural Modeling and Structural Equation Modeling approach. This applied study employed a quantitative, descriptive-correlational survey design with a causal modeling approach. The statistical population consisted of football spectators attending stadiums in Iraq, from whom 384 participants were selected through convenience sampling. Data were collected using a researcher-developed 70-item questionnaire rated on a five-point Likert scale. Construct validity was examined using confirmatory factor analysis, convergent and discriminant validity were evaluated through average variance extracted and the Fornell–Larcker criterion, and reliability was assessed using Cronbach’s alpha and composite reliability. Interpretive Structural Modeling was conducted using judgments from 15 experts to determine structural relationships and hierarchical levels among the main factors. The resulting model was subsequently tested through partial least squares structural equation modeling using SmartPLS 4.1. ISM results classified the factors into three hierarchical levels: economic, managerial, and structural factors formed the foundational third level; stadium infrastructural and environmental factors together with team-related and match-attractiveness factors constituted the second level; and psychological, social, and cultural factors occupied the first level. Economic, managerial, and structural factors significantly affected stadium infrastructure (β=0.759, t=21.720, p<0.001), team-related factors (β=0.706, t=20.956, p<0.001), and psychological, social, and cultural factors (β=0.343, t=6.881, p<0.001). Team-related factors (β=0.417, t=6.784, p<0.001) and stadium infrastructure (β=0.217, t=3.438, p<0.001) also significantly affected psychological, social, and cultural factors. Partial mediation was confirmed for team-related factors (VAF=0.366) and infrastructural factors (VAF=0.204). Model fit was acceptable (GOF=0.507, NFI=0.868, SRMR=0.077). Spectators’ reattendance intention in Iraqi football stadiums develops through a multilevel causal chain originating from economic, managerial, and structural conditions and operating through stadium infrastructure and team attractiveness to strengthen the psychological and social determinants most proximal to spectators’ behavioral intentions. Accordingly, interventions should prioritize foundational economic and managerial improvements while simultaneously enhancing stadium and team-related conditions.